Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 22.839127 24.856266 27.035998 29.577813 32.474860 35.691098 39.555697
2025-12-07 19.613092 22.358811 25.534310 29.522976 34.463834 40.472142 48.473535
2025-12-14 17.330249 20.457802 24.268150 29.346326 36.088029 44.964803 57.965071
2025-12-21 16.134063 19.627310 24.081708 30.345197 39.219620 51.853009 72.271622
2025-12-28 14.739304 18.335002 23.079841 30.033752 40.411180 56.172071 83.936147
2026-01-04 13.708787 17.385591 22.385129 29.988889 41.890709 61.115496 98.022030
2026-01-11 12.960290 16.728072 21.994615 30.288029 43.879896 67.223722 116.251861
2026-01-18 12.175913 15.939610 21.319496 30.038335 44.893293 71.807882 133.173626
2026-01-25 11.522438 15.278305 20.757530 29.876504 45.993355 76.750613 152.979768
2026-02-01 10.981059 14.734470 20.315481 29.841076 47.284470 82.337967 177.106002
2026-02-08 10.473203 14.200942 19.838289 29.680646 48.298954 87.575563 203.259087
2026-02-15 10.008741 13.699927 19.368256 29.472840 49.175571 92.718764 232.479749
2026-02-22 9.563522 13.211344 18.897752 29.245515 50.047168 98.278212 268.182494
2026-03-01 9.195790 12.821875 18.561241 29.228898 51.368266 105.413637 316.958966
2026-03-08 8.833349 12.418695 18.171485 29.070830 52.363668 112.057119 371.655348
2026-03-15 8.699830 12.371642 18.376073 30.063566 56.115067 127.872005 497.082305
2026-03-22 8.362272 11.972760 17.944317 29.759356 56.787641 134.729552 584.838449
2026-03-29 8.091878 11.669292 17.657964 29.716431 58.091847 144.218890 715.181873
2026-04-05 7.891848 11.471242 17.543633 30.012287 60.308080 157.933250 929.074417
2026-04-12 7.627733 11.151669 17.188774 29.766080 61.071338 166.729182 1134.278697
2026-04-19 7.393455 10.871378 16.888003 29.606445 62.048278 176.955986 1421.169532
2026-04-26 7.190921 10.635728 16.654885 29.571521 63.375240 189.484197 1854.762172
2026-05-03 6.984988 10.384763 16.378058 29.413174 64.328338 201.018974 2416.806058